• World governing body IIHF threatening to expel China from Olympic ice hockey tournament.
• IIHF prepared to bend eligibility rules for China to avoid global embarrassment.
• New Canadian coach hired with just nine months to go.
• Political infighting hindering recruitment process for players.

In news that has not previously been reported, China Sports Insider can exclusively reveal that the International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) has threatened to kick the Chinese team out of its own Olympic ice hockey tournament on home soil in Beijing if China doesn’t get its act together quickly, according to multiple sources. Furthermore, the situation is so dire that the IIHF has offered to waive its own eligibility requirements to allow China to bolster its own team through foreign-born recruits.

The Background

After winning the bid to host the 2022 Winter Olympics, China lobbied the IIHF to be granted automatic berths in the men’s and women’s Olympic ice hockey tournaments. South Korea was also granted automatic berths at the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics, but this is up to the discretion of the IIHF, who set the rules. With only 12 teams in the men’s tournament and 10 teams in the women’s tournament, China was highly unlikely to qualify by right, given that its men’s team is ranked #32 in the world and its women’s team is ranked #19.

But automatic berths made sense for both sides. For the IIHF, who have a mandate to grow the global game, it provided an incentive for China to fast track its ice hockey development, which it had promised to do. If China ever becomes a major player in ice hockey – and right now that’s a big “if” – the face of the global game could change, but that’s the hope that the IIHF must continue to foster.

For China, there was similar incentive. Ice hockey is one of the blue riband events at a Winter Olympics and the host nation wanted to be a part of it. Getting an automatic berth put all the necessary pressure on China – both internally and externally – to carry through with its development. So, in May 2018, China was granted automatic berths.

The Problem

Simply put, it was too much, too soon. China has some promising young players, and has made great strides in terms of participation at the youth levels, but the most competitive age groups were always going to be far too young to compete at the senior level by 2022.

But things got worse – much worse.

When the men’s draw was made in April 2020, China, as the lowest-ranked 12^th seed, was placed in a group with Canada (#1), USA (#6) and Germany (#7). Germany might sound beatable to outsiders, but they won the silver medal in Pyeongchang four years ago, when NHL players didn’t take part. Then, last summer, as part of the NHL’s negotiations to “Return To Play” following the COVID-enforced break, the NHL provisionally signed off on allowing its players to take part at Beijing 2022. Those details still need to be finalized between the IOC, the IIHF and the NHL, but things are moving in the right direction and it appears as if the absolute best players in the world from Canada and the US will be lining up against Team China. (I’ll deal with the women’s team later.)

I cannot stress enough quite how disastrous this could be for China if Connor McDavid and his merry band of NHL All-Stars face the current Chinese Olympic ice hockey squad, which is currently training up in Shenyang. One hockey executive spoke of an impending “slaughter”. A coach who has first-hand experience with the Chinese squad told me he thought the scores against Canada and the US could be in the region of 100-0.

“If the Canadians had two players and no goalie, they would still win – comfortably,” he said.

🚨 New Podcast 🚨

China sports insider @dreyerchina came on to talk Olympics protest rules, prepping for the Beijing games, and the car crash to be for the Chinese men’s ice hockey team. Covered some of my favourite topics this week.

Follow at https://t.co/KDAZ89HC3z

— Haig Balian (@haigbalian) May 6, 2021

The Solution

Well, as you might imagine by now, there is no easy solution. But what the IIHF has been pushing China to do is to recruit and naturalize players from other countries to bolster their team. Korea did this for 2018, icing seven North American-born players alongside 18 Koreans. It’s in the rules, as long as those players play in their new host country for at least two years before they switch nationalities and get the necessary paperwork completed in time. China obviously doesn’t have two years left, but the situation is so dire that the IIHF has offered to bend their existing eligibility rules to let China bring some foreign players in, thereby avoiding the worst-case scenario on the ice.

This is actually pretty scandalous when you think about it. These rules have been in place for years. But compared to the rest of the mess, it’s wholly insignificant. Blowout victories on the ice benefit no one – except perhaps North American geopolitical hawks who are keen to see China crushed on home soil – and China and the IIHF have no interest in playing to that particular crowd.

Another Problem

China has in fact been recruiting ethnically-Chinese North American players for several years through the Kunlun Red Star (KRS) club, with the aim of giving them passports in time to represent China at the 2022 Olympics. One such player is Zach Yuen (interview here), but there have been many others.

But KRS has fallen out with the Chinese Ice Hockey Association (CIHA), and so it appears that all these potential recruits are now considered by the current Chinese authorities to be tainted by their association with KRS. Meanwhile, the CIHA has basically been relieved of its duties by the General Administration of Sports (GAS), because it’s messed up the Olympic ice hockey team preparation so badly, but the rift between KRS and those in charge of the Chinese Olympic ice hockey team remains. With China not predicted to do particularly well in other events, the pressure is now squarely on GAS to deliver. It’s possible something can be resolved and the KRS recruits could still be brought back into the Olympic fold, but for now things are at a stalemate.

So which other players can they get? Well, almost all the ethnically Chinese players around the world were already on KRS’ radar, so there are reports that players from the Soviet bloc are being considered, perhaps those from Central Asia, who look at least a little “Chinese” (I’m not making this up). And there is also the option to recruit white guys from Europe or North America, as Korea did four years ago. This is not China’s preferred option, but time is running out and the pressure from the IIHF is increasing.

The Coach

As part of the moves required to keep the IIHF at bay – and ensure that it doesn’t throw China out of the Olympic ice hockey tournament altogether – China has hired Canadian coach Curt Fraser to be the new coach of the men’s Olympic ice hockey team. He’s just completed his quarantine in Shenzhen, and has headed up to Shenyang to meet up with his squad.

Is there a harder job in hockey🏒right now? Fraser has less than a year to get the Chinese team "ready" to face Canada and USA teams @Beijing2022 that will likely comprise the top NHL stars. https://t.co/59KTAMmGgF

— Mark Dreyer (@DreyerChina) May 1, 2021

Fraser has played more than 700 NHL games, was the first head coach of the NHL’s expansion franchise Atlanta Thrashers for 3+ seasons and previously coached the KRS men’s team in 2019-20. But quite how he is expected to turn this thing around in less than a year when he doesn’t even know what his squad will look like is anyone’s guess.

The Future

There are two scenarios here:

• Either the IIHF removes China from the Olympic ice hockey tournament (Option 1), or
• China quickly recruits some foreigners and does the best it can (Option 2).

Personally, I think 1 is the best option for China. Yes, it’s a little embarrassing, but COVID provides a built-in excuse and it avoids the impending on-ice massacre that surely awaits next February.

However, it’s currently more likely that the authorities choose option 2. There are too many voices telling GAS that the situation is not that bad – when it really, really is that bad – and so the sports ministry is desperate to avoid the embarrassment of being thrown out of their home Olympics. But the foreign recruits would only help so much – the games will still be very one-sided – and the temporary embarrassment of option 1 could pale into insignificance compared to multiple hockey games with basketball-like score lines that will live on forever in history.

The Women

Much of the above applies to the women’s team, too, but there are a couple of major differences. First, the women aren’t as bad as the men in the world rankings, and the top end of the women’s game globally is less developed than the men’s game due to stunted professional development over the years, meaning that the difference is less pronounced.

Second, the seeding for the women’s Olympic ice hockey tournament is different, which has two groups of five teams. All of the teams in the stronger Group A will automatically qualify for the quarterfinals, joining three of the teams from the weaker Group B, which includes China. So China’s round-robin games will all be against weaker nations, rather than the powerhouses.

But the issue of recruitment for the women also remains up in the air. KRS has scouted and recruited half a dozen ethnically-Chinese North American women, who would still dearly love to play for China at the Olympics if the politics allow it. Whether the relative strength of the women’s team means that the authorities deem foreign recruits to be unnecessary or whether the IIHF will push through foreign ringers for both the men’s and women’s teams remains to be seen.

All in all, there’s a lot going on here, and there’s likely to be plenty of further twists and turns over the next few months. Watch this space…

For an UPDATE on the above situation, please read:

Bursting The Bubble: What We Know About the 2022 Olympics (Aug 25, details of heritage players recruited for Team China)

NHL Players Could Miss Out On Olympics As Deadline Looms (July 7, the wrestling between NHL and NHLPA on the Olympic decision)

Rocky Road Ahead for Chinese Ice Hockey Hopefuls (May 15, some more nuanced options at what might happen to the Chinese team at the Olympics)

See also:

• 40 Weeks To Go: Cotton Socks, Robotaxis & Tchaikovsky
• 41 Weeks To Go: Boycott Bill & Olympic Protests Outlawed
• 300 Days To Go: BioNTech Vaccine in China & Boycott Threats Ease
• 43 Weeks To Go: Ping Pong Diplomacy & Canadian’s Chinese Dream
• 44 Weeks To Go: Test Events, Nike Reprieve & Chengdu Postponement

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