Tokyo Chaos Lowers Bar for Beijing 2022 – and That’s a Shame

In this week’s look at all the latest news in the build-up to the 2022 Olympics and elsewhere:

  • What Tokyo’s ban on Olympic spectators means for Beijing
  • Record Chinese delegation set for Tokyo, as individual sports announces their teams
  • NHL players hold firm with their desire to play in the Olympics
  • Team China hockey rosters starting to take shape
  • The latest 2022 Olympics boycott talk from around the world
  • All the other features and stories of interest

Tokyo Announces Ban on Olympic Spectators

There’s no getting around it: Tokyo is a disaster right now and with the decision this week for a ban on Olympic spectators at all venues – effectively reducing it to a made-for TV Olympics – the Tokyo Games took another huge hit.

What will this mean for Beijing? Well, for a start, it dramatically lowers the bar in terms of expectations. I’d already written that I don’t think Beijing will allow overseas spectators to come to the 2022 Olympics and I’d be staggered if that doesn’t turn out to be the case, but there’s now surely a larger chance that all spectators are banned, following Tokyo’s precedent. There’s a long way to go before a decision is reached on this and there’s several reasons to think Beijing would prefer to have full venues. But if the athletes are flying in without quarantine and competing in some sort of bubble – which appears to be the direction things are heading right now – it becomes harder to see how China would allow its residents to mix with those athletes in the venues, when there would then be a resulting risk of spreading imported cases (i.e. from foreign athletes) to its own population.

From a personal perspective, I’d like to see Beijing do everything possible to create as normal an Olympic experience as possible, while staying safe – although in COVID times that’s all relative – but there’s now less incentive for Beijing to do so, because “outperforming Tokyo” just got considerably easier.

In other news, it sounds like Vice Premier Sun Chunlan will represent China at the Tokyo 2020 Opening Ceremony. Some are reading this as a deliberate snub from China towards its rival Japan, noting that President Xi Jinping himself went to Sochi in 2014, but that’s a mistake. Vice Premiers (including Han Zheng and Liu Yandong in recent years) have typically represented China at overseas Olympics, and there’s no way whatsoever Xi would go to Japan given the current situation there. Sun is one of China’s four vice premiers and the official in charge of sports, so is the logical choice.

Record Chinese Delegation for Tokyo as Rosters are Announced

China is expected to send more than 400 athletes to the Tokyo Olympic Games, according to Reuters citing Chinese state media, beating the record 416 athletes in 26 disciplines and 210 events that were sent to Rio 2016 (although some reports estimate the final could be slightly lower, at 413). China has already secured 318 spots in 224 events for 30 disciplines, and will announce the remaining athletes in the coming days.

The individual sports rosters are being finalized, with a 30-member swim team looking to bring back a number of medals. There are no obvious candidates for gold in Tokyo, although Xu Jiayu – winner of the men’s 100m backstroke at the 2017 and 2019 World Championships – is probably the team’s best hope. Two notable absences are the stars of China’s team at the London Olympics nine years. Ye Shiwen didn’t make the cut after some indifferent form and Sun Yang‘s lengthy doping ban means he now has to focus on Paris 2024. Also missing is Fu Yuanhui – one of the biggest personalities from Rio 2016. 19 female swimmers and 11 male Chinese swimmers will compete in 34 events in Tokyo.

Elsewhere, China will send a 15-member team to compete in nine fencing events, with Olympic champion Xu Anqi and World Cup winner Sun Yiwen leading the squad as per the list unveiled by the International Fencing Federation this week. Meanwhile, star volleyball player Zhu Ting will captain the Chinese women’s team, as they look to defend the title they won in Rio, reigning Olympic men’s badminton champion Chen Long looks to have avoided the worst of the draw, the gymnastics team has finalized its difficult selection decisions and China’s sailing team has already set sail for Japan.

Where the NHL’s Olympic Participation Stands

I offered some thoughts last week on the likelihood of NHL participation in the Beijing Olympics and received a number of more pessimistic responses. The NHL doesn’t want to go – that’s never been in doubt – but I still believe there’s a much higher chance the players will come to Beijing next year.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, regarded as one of the best hockey insiders around, tends to agree, writing this week:

According to multiple sources, the NHLPA has canvassed its membership since Bettman/Daly’s comments, and the response has been “we want to go.” Even if it is not the Olympics as we are used to.

The biggest outstanding issue appears to be COVID-related insurance, which apparently no insurers will offer whatever the price. But according to Friedman, the players stand ready to accept that risk themselves:

Players are going to have to accept that risk. And their answer, as things stand now, is, “We’re in.”

Owners won’t like that – even if they don’t have to cover that insurance, they will still lose out of players get sick – but they may not have a choice in the matter. One final point from Friedman:

Whenever the NHL schedule is released, I’d expect to see the Olympics on it. But — and this is a big “but” — I’d also expect in any closing negotiation with the IOC an understanding that if things take a turn for the worse in the days/weeks/months before February, there will be some kind of alternate or cancellation plan.

Given the way China has handled the pandemic so far, with incredibly restrictive entry policies and quarantine arrangements, I would largely discount Friedman’s final point as it pertains to Beijing. Things might well take a turn for the worse in the days/weeks/months before February – but it won’t be in China.

Team China Taking Shape with Announcements Due in Coming Days

I also wrote last week that offers have been made to various heritage players – North American hockey players of Chinese descent – ahead of the upcoming season and the rosters will take shape in the coming days. Essentially, Team China will be playing under the Kunlun Red Star (KRS) banner this season in both the men’s and women’s leagues in Russia. There has been a massive amount of things going on behind the scenes, but, in summary, previous conflicts have been mostly put to one side and the two sides – China and KRS – are now grudgingly working together.

Canadian Zach Yuen has already announced on social media he’ll be back playing for KRS (i.e. Team China) and with training camp set to start in Russia on July 13, we will certainly know more in the coming days. The team’s roster – from the official site and updated daily – currently lists just five players… I’m told the hang up is from the Chinese side, as Team China has still not officially announced its head coach (following the departure of Curt Fraser due to serious illness), and so KRS can’t announce players until it’s been informed who the coach will be.

On the women’s side, the heritage players have been notified of their selection already and details/contracts are currently being finalized. Again, expect some official announcements soon, although it’s likely that many of the heritage players will join camp later in the summer.

The one big remaining question is citizenship. All of these heritage need to be given Chinese passports if they are to play for China in the Olympics. It’s literally been years of going around in circles on this issue, but it’s happened in other sports here, and I’m confident it will – eventually – happen in hockey, too.

Olympic Boycott Watch

The Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis told Xi Jinping in a call this week he will attend the Beijing Winter Olympics in February, despite the European Parliament passing a non-binding resolution the next day calling for a diplomatic boycott of the Games due to alleged human rights abuses.

The resolution passed comprehensively with 578 votes in favor, 29 against and 73 abstentions. It had the backing of all of Europe’s mainstream political groups, including the center-right EPP group of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the centrists of France’s Emmanuel Macron. As the birthplace of the Olympics, Greece was always going to be seen as more of a weak spot from China’s perspective, but expect diplomatic negotiations to continue over the coming months as China seeks to bolster support for 2022.

Further afield, Chinese diplomats have been getting the positive word out around the world, including – most bizarrely – the Bahamas. The latest is this op-ed in the Manila Times by Tan Qingsheng, unidentified by the paper as the Charge d’Affaires of the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines. Tan exhorts: “In 2022, let us join hands in Beijing to enjoy the charm of ice and snow sports and together make our dream come true!” Yup, pretty balanced stuff.

And in the UK, the opposition Labour party has been urging the Royal Family and UK ministers to boycott the Beijing Winter Olympics. It’s looking increasingly likely that this will be the global norm among western nations, but a full sporting boycott is an increasingly remote possibility.

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