China On Target in Early Running at Tokyo Olympics

In this week’s Olympic round-up:

  • Two early gold medals for China kick off Day 1
  • Chinese reaction to the Opening Ceremony
  • Tentative start on the pitch for China
  • A round-up of China’s main Olympic medal contenders for Tokyo
  • All the other features and stories of interest

Early Golds for China

China has raced off to a great start at the Tokyo Olympics, with two gold medals early on the first day of medal competition. 21-year-old Chinese shooter Yang Qian won the first gold medal of the Olympic Games by edging victory in the women’s 10m air rifle title.

Anastasiia Galashina from ROC (formerly Russia) missed the center two rings, scoring 8.9 on her final shot, while Yang scored 9.8 with her final shot to finish with an Olympic record of 251.8 – just 0.7 points behind.

Yang’s win had been far from a sure thing after the qualification round, in which she finished sixth. Norway’s Jeanette Hegg Duestad led going into the final, after shooting an Olympic record of 632.9 in qualification, but finished outside of the medals in 4th.

Hou Zhihui then quickly doubled China’s gold medal count with a win in the women’s 49kg weightlifting category. She lifted an Olympic Record (OR) 116 kg in the clean & jerk for a total of 210 kg, also a new OR.

Women’s weightlifting hasn’t always been a source of pride for China – with three champions from Beijing 2008 later stripped of their Olympic titles after their samples were re-tested years later (although this is a problem rife within the sport, not specifically a China issue). Let’s hope no such fate awaits Hou, as the sport attempts to regain some of its lost credibility.

Opening Ceremony

Not much to say on this – if you watched it, you would have seen a fairly somber, muted performance. But the pictogram performance lit up social media in China, as elsewhere, with many delighted by the innovative performers.

Other than that, the most popular image shared was of the Chinese delegation parading into the stadium, with Zhu Ting (women’s volleyball, left) and Zhao Shuai (men’s taekwondo, right) the two flagbearers for China.

Many in China praised US TV network NBC for its coverage of the 2008 Beijing Olympics Opening Ceremony, with the consensus view within China that the Americans did the best job of cutting together their camera angles to give the most complete broadcast.

But praise for NBC was not forthcoming this time, after China criticized the network for using an “incomplete” map, which didn’t include Taiwan or the South China Sea, an area China claims in large part as its own. No one from China has yet specified which parts were missing – presumably because that would mean showing the offending image – but the Chinese Consulate in New York said NBC was “politicizing sports” as well as violating the spirit of the Olympic charter. Don’t expect an apology any time soon…

Tentative Start for China Ahead of Ceremony

The Opening Ceremony was on Friday evening Japan time, but the Games had already begun – and it was not initially a good start for China. Soccer and softball games started on Wednesday and the Chinese women’s football team were up against Brazil.

The South Americans have a fearsome reputation but came into the 12-team tournament as only the fifth strongest team on paper, as per world rankings, but still started as favorites against China (#14 in the world). An early 2-0 lead for Brazil put China on the back foot and though they had several chances to pull one back, including a shot that hit the post, they crumbled towards the end, with Brazil inflicting a heavy 5-0 defeat. It’s hard to dress that up as anything other than very disappointing.

It’s not over quite yet, because China also gets to play Zambia (#104 in the world) who were mushed 10-3 by the Netherlands, and big win against the Africans plus a solid result against the Dutch could see China progress as one of the two best third-place finishers [UPDATE: that game is finely poised at the time of writing at China 3-3 Gambia, 20 minutes remaining]. But if China fails to progress, questions will be asked about the team’s insular preparations, including why star player Wang Shuang was recalled from French team PSG two years ago after completing just half of her two-year contract, ostensibly so she could “better prepare” for the Olympics by being in China.

China’s Olympic Medal Contenders

China is sending its largest team to an overseas Olympic Games as it aims to boost its medal haul in Tokyo in sports in which it does not traditionally do well in. But China has tried this before, of course, without much success, so expect the vast majority of medals to still come in familiar areas. I’ll take a look at some of those favorites below, as well as some dark horses.

Team China, led by 24 Olympic champions, is expected to perform well in table tennis, diving, weightlifting, shooting, gymnastics and badminton, As I wrote last week, China is predicted to finished second overall in Tokyo, with a much improved performance (+15 medals) over Rio 2016 (see here for the predicted totals). Many of their golds should come in the expected sports, starting – as always – with diving (max 8) and table tennis (max 5).

Table Tennis

In table tennis, China has won 28 out of 32 gold medals since the sport was introduced to the Olympic Games at Seoul 1988, a win rate of 87.5%. Reigning Olympic champions Ma Long and Xu Xin are joined by world no. 1 Fan Zhendong on the men’s side. For the women, world no. 1 Chen Meng is joined by Sun Yingsha and Liu Shiwen. The dream final in the women’s singles would be Chen Meng against world no. 2, Mima Ito of Japan.

China usually wins four gold medals in ping pong, but mixed doubles will make its Olympic debut at Tokyo 2020, so it could very well be five this time. In addition to the six ping pong players representing China, I’ve counted at least another 20 Chinese-born players naturalized for a variety of other countries at these Olympics, so even if China doesn’t win all the golds, they could still win all the golds.

Women’s Volleyball

This team is a BIG deal in China. From captain Zhu Ting – the undisputed best player in the world and one of China’s two flag bearers for Friday’s Opening Ceremony – to coach Jenny Lang Ping (who won Olympic gold as a player in 1984 and as a coach four years ago in Rio), China’s women’s volleyball team could win a record fourth gold medal in Tokyo, equaling a record set by the Soviet Union.

China can become the fourth country to win successive Olympic titles in the women’s tournament, after the Soviet Union, Cuba and Brazil. With three golds, one silver and two bronzes medals, China also shares the record for most Olympic medals in the women’s competition, alongside Japan and the Soviet Union. China’s main challenges for gold could come from the US and Brazil.

Rowing

Rowing is one of the sports in which China seeks to make up some ground on the competition, and to do so has hired British rower Sir Steve Redgrave – one of the greatest Olympians of all time and one of 30 foreign coaches and physical trainers from 19 countries hired by China for these Games.

Redgrave, a five-time Olympic rowing champion for Great Britain, said he has been impressed by the progress of Chinese rowers since he took over the national program in 2018 as director of high-level performance:

“We are now a good team going to Tokyo. We’ve got chances of good medals, hopefully gold medals. The plan is to get stronger for Paris 2024, so Tokyo is just a stepping stone.”

Redgrave added that China’s women’s quadruple sculls team and the men’s double sculls are gold medal favorites in Tokyo.

Swimming

China’s 30-strong swimming team doesn’t have any clear gold-medal favorites or any Olympic winners among its ranks after three-time champion Sun Yang was ruled out of the Games with a ban of more than four years for doping violations. The best hopes are women’s butterfly sprinter Zhang Yufei and men’s backstroke world champion Xu Jiayu.

Zhang, 23, set this year’s world-leading time in the women’s 200m butterfly at China’s national trials in May. American Hali Flickinger and 2019 world champion Boglarka Kapas of Hungary are expected to be Zhang’s main rivals for gold in Tokyo. Zhang is also a strong contender in the 100m butterfly [UPDATE: and qualified for the semis with the fastest time overall].

19-year-old Yang Junxuan will compete in the 200m freestyle, where she has the third best time this year, behind Australian prodigy Ariarne Titmus and Katie Ledecky, the American defending champion in 200m, 400m and 800m freestyle. China’s distance freestyle duo of Li Bingjie and Wang Jianjiahe are also eyeing medals, in the women’s 400m, 800m and 1500m races, with Ledecky their most obvious competition.

On the men’s side, Sun’s absence has left backstroke star Xu as China’s sole gold-medal hope in Tokyo. The two-time 100m world champion (2017 and 19) and Rio 2016 silver medalist says he is inspired by the memory of his late coach, Xu Guoyi, who died a year ago from brain cancer:

“I feel like I’ve grown a lot since he passed away … my form was affected more or less, but eventually I realized that the best way to pay him back is by standing on top of the Olympic podium.”

Xu notably coached Ye Shiwen to women’s 200m and 400m IM titles at London 2012. Xu Jiayi will face competition from Russia’s Evgeny Rylov and longtime American rival Ryan Murphy.

In the 4x100m mixed medley relay, a team comprised of Xu Jiayi, Zhang Yufei, women’s freestyler Yang Junxuan and men’s breaststroke specialist Yan Zibei set a world-record 3:38.41 at the national championships in October. They start as favorites in the event’s Olympic debut, but can expect strong challenges from the US and Australia.

Other medal hopes

  • Taekwondo athlete Zhao Shuai – one of China’s two flag bearers for the opening ceremony, who will be looking for his second Olympic title.
  • Gong Lijiao – a hot favorite in the women’s shot put, her face has been on rotation over national broadcaster CCTV’s sports programming in recent weeks.
  • Women’s 20 kilometers race walk – China boasts the world’s top three athletes: defending Olympic champion Liu Hong, world-record holder Yang Jiayu and world no. 3 Qieyang Shijie.
  • Women’s tennis – Wang Qiang and Zheng Saisai (singles) and Yang Zhaoxuan & Xu Yifan, and Duan Yingying & Zheng (doubles) carry China’s hopes in what could be an unpredictable competition. Zheng faces torch lighter and Japanese star Naomi Osaka in the first round on Sunday.

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